COP29: Hope for Climate Mitigation and Climate Fund

COP29 in Azerbaijan is just three months away.

It is one of the most anticipated climate events in 2024.

More so because I am expecting action and actionable strategies from Baku, as against hollow promises in the past events.

There are couple of reasons, I am placing my bets on COP29:

1. Climate incidents have played global havoc. Disturbing climate incidents have displaced thousands of people as well as animals. The loss and damage are yet to be established.
2. The event has already sparked climate conversations. But more so because, the host country, Azerbaijan is taking the lead in mitigating climate action.

The country aims to reduce emissions by 40% by 2050 through climate mitigation plans, including gas-free power stations, renewable energy, and energy-efficient technologies. With these initiatives, Baku has set the ball rolling for member countries.

India, in particular, which has seen massive destruction because of increased natural disasters will be an active participant.

Here are some reasons why:

Till July 2024, India witnessed over 120 natural disasters ranging from cyclones, floods, flash floods, landslides, insect infestations, forest fires.

• The year 2023 has been the warmest year on record, with 1.48 degrees warmer than the pre-industrial average. The Centre for Science and Environment’s annual Anil Agarwal Dialogue revealed that 109 nations, including India, experienced extreme weather events in 2023, causing losses of 3,287 human lives, 2.21 million hectares, and 124,813 animal deaths.
• A World Bank Climate Change report predicts India’s average temperature to rise by 1.1-4.1°C by the end of the century, influenced by the 21st-century emissions pathway.
• The G20 Climate Risk Atlas highlights India’s already severe climate change impacts, predicting impacts up to 2050 and 2100 on various emission pathways.
• India faces severe climate impacts due to high emissions, with heatwave lengths increasing by 2,515% in 30 years, causing heat-related deaths 25 times higher than in 1990, destroying crops, and costing farmers 15% of income by 2050.
• Increased climate threats, including extreme heatwaves, hurricanes are interrupting the supply chain.

Grim picture?

IT CERTAINLY IS!

Even as the country limps from one tragic incident to normalcy, tragedy strikes another region with an equal or more devastating vigor. This is a continuing trend over the past few years with no solution in sight. Besides, every climate incident poses newer challenges.

WriteCanvas has consistently pointed out the ill effects of ignoring natural warnings (including climate change). I am hoping that the climate conversation at Baku is realistic. It just does not play on the lines of the previous COP editions that provide hope but no conducive solutions to mitigate climate change.

Climate finance at play:

The UNFCCC’s Standing Committee on Finance estimates that developing countries need $5.8-11.5 trillion by 2030 to meet their climate plans.

COP29 also aims to Paris Agreement goals including limiting global warming, adapting to climate change impacts, and mobilizing financing.

Experts augur that the faster India adopts low-carbon policies, it will face lesser climate impacts cascades. Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will see the cost of climate impacts in India drop to just 2% of its GDP by 2050 and 5.18% by 2100. At COP29, all eyes will be on ACT2025.

According to WRI, The Allied Climate Transformation (ACT) 2025 consortium is advocating for strong climate finance and support at COP29, focusing on 3.6 billion people in climate-vulnerable countries.

The consortium aims to meet the needs of developing countries and set an ambitious climate finance goal to support low-emissions economies. Climate-vulnerable nations face widespread devastation from climate change, and a lack of support for climate action is concerning.

The consortium’s Call to Action outlines concrete actions to support these countries, including setting an ambitious climate finance goal and ensuring quality finance, and accountability.

This will take into account the needs and priorities of developing country Parties, and will also include the operationalization of Article 6. Strengthening multilateral financial institutions and climate funds will contribute to creating an international enabling environment for success.

Debuting the New Collective Quantified Goal:

The UN climate conference in Baku will focus on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) to determine the new amount developed nations must mobilize annually to support climate action in developing countries starting in 2025.

Adopting the NCQG is crucial for the Paris Agreement. The COP29 Presidency aims to agree on an ambitious NCQG, considering the needs and priorities of developing country Parties, and facilitating transparency and accessibility.

The top negotiating priority is agreeing on a fair and ambitious NCQG on climate finance, considering developing country needs.

Strengthening multilateral financial institutions and climate funds, and mobilizing the private sector and philanthropy for climate action are also crucial in adopting the NCQG and implementing the Paris Agreement.

Our take:

COP29, we hope, will lay out actionable roadmaps for the pressing issues of Climate Fund mobilization and lack of action in the Paris Agreement. We also hope the world leaders align in their climate language, fast-tracking in actions, and accountability that measure impacts.

A crucial question recently struck me after a conversation with an industry expert: are we truly tackling climate change through mitigation, or are we merely adapting to its consequences?

While both perspectives have merit, the reality is unsettling – most current efforts lean heavily towards adaptation, a reactive approach to immediate and near-term crises.

This isn’t to downplay the importance of resilience. Responding to floods, droughts, and other climate events is vital. However, it shouldn’t overshadow the urgent need for proactive mitigation strategies. We must move beyond short-term fixes and implement a long-term vision with concrete deadlines. Sadly, COP28, which concluded in Dubai on December 8th, 2023, lacked this crucial element.

The gap in mitigation action stems from a confluence of factors. These include:

Data Gaps: While scientific evidence paints a clear picture of the climate crisis, we lack micro-geographical data for enabling communities to effectively prepare for local impacts.

Flawed Strategies: Many countries, regardless of their development status, have nominal mitigation plans riddled with loopholes that allow them to avoid accountability for missed targets.

Technological Lag: Despite efforts to develop climate prediction tools, a significant gap remains. Initiatives like India’s focus on precise climate forecasting for extreme weather events represent promising steps.

Unreliable Finance: While financial commitments are made, developed nations often fall short in mobilizing the necessary climate funds. The newly established “damage and loss” fund offers a glimmer of hope, but its scope is limited. Green funds, too, face challenges like greenwashing, making it difficult to track their actual utilization in mitigation efforts.

Implementation Delays: Reports before COP28 highlighted widespread lags in countries meeting their climate goals. A drastic course correction is needed, demanding a top-down approach that prioritizes community-level benefits while fostering global collaboration and joint action.

Bridging these gaps requires a multi-pronged approach:

Strengthening Green Initiatives: Investing in green technologies, renewable energy, and sustainable practices is essential.
Maximizing Green Funds: Effective allocation and utilization of these funds, along with robust monitoring mechanisms, is crucial.
Leveraging Native Knowledge: Indigenous communities hold invaluable knowledge about living in harmony with nature. Incorporating their wisdom can empower local adaptation and resilience.
Micro-data Driven Strategies: Focusing on acquiring and utilizing geospatial data will equip communities with the precise information they need to prepare for and manage local climate impacts.

Above all, we need a collective commitment to move beyond adaptation and embrace mitigation. I believe that the year 2024 will be a turning point, marked by the emergence of innovative technologies and a renewed focus on mitigation. Let’s work together to ensure that this year becomes a defining moment in our collective fight against climate change.

Among the many effects of rapid climate change, women are finding it harder to manage their domestic responsibilities—like cleaning, cooking, gathering resources—and caring for the elderly as well as their children, noted authors of the Observer Research Foundation.

While the impact of climate change on women the world over is the same, the Rajiv Gandhi University (RGU) and the Women & child development department, Government of Arunachal Pradesh (GoAP), recently signed an MoU to study the impact on women of the hilly state.

The MoU aims to promote equitable gender roles and responsibilities in climate-resilient community resource management, protecting vulnerable communities like women and children, and ensuring distributive justice in the Pakke Tiger Reserve 2047 Declaration.

Professor Saket Kushwaha, vice chancellor of RGU, expressed confidence that the MoU will be action-oriented and productive because the area chosen for the research is solely for the good of Arunachal Pradesh, which actually focuses and intends to conduct it under the Panch-Dhara strategies.

RGU registrar Dr N T Rikam said that the objectives based on the MoU will yield its desired results and will be mutually beneficial for both organizations.

The impact of climate change on women has gained significance over the recent past. For instance, in an article on Five Reasons Why Climate Action Needs Women, the United Nations Climate Change pointed out that women often face higher risks and greater burdens from the impacts of climate change in situations of poverty and due to existing roles, responsibilities and cultural norms.

For example, in many societies, women are responsible for household energy, food, water and care for the young and elderly. Particularly in developing countries, the consequences of climate change can increase the burden for women and girls, for example, causing them to travel further to obtain daily supplies, leaving less time for paid work and potentially exposing them to greater risk to their personal safety, UNFCC said in the report.

An Amazon delivery boy jumped into the customer’s pool to beat the heat. To many, this may present a comical respite. But for me, the incident highlights the severity of heatwaves in California and the reality of the impact of severe changes in climate and temperature on the human race.

The current last week is a case in point. As we inch toward the weekend, we have witnessed havoc caused by the heavy downpour in Asia including India, the hottest summer in many European countries, the heatwave in the US, etc. No, I am not going to dive deep into the damage or to the data in this blog. But I want to draw your attention to a joint statement by the UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell and COP28 President-Designate Dr Sultan Al Jaber at the G20 Energy Ministerial in Goa last Friday (21 July 2023).

The crux is “align action and political will going forward towards the common goal of closing the gaps across all of the pillars of the Paris Agreement and get on track to keep 1.5⁰C within reach.”

No doubt the leadership by the G20 is Indispensable in climate action as the G20 countries are responsible for 85% of the world’s GDP, and also 80% of the world’s emissions.

This means we all know what is required to transition towards a net-zero economy. But apprehension about the benefits, growth, fear of diminishing profits/market share, and so on keeps people and enterprises away from real action. I am of the view that the tide can be turned. What is required is a firm political will combined with corporate actions. I am not saying, there is no action, but more needs to be done as the TIME TO ACT IS NOW.

As a part of the sustainability community, I believe that sustainable development and a climate-resilient world come with great benefits for growth, poverty eradication and more. It just needs a collective will.

Discussions around climate change and climate action dominate the world today. But statements such as the one reproduced below ring alarming bells.

“While the discussions at the G20 Energy Ministerial considered energy transition and aligning current pathways with the Paris Goals, the outcome did not provide a sufficiently clear signal for transforming global energy systems, scaling up renewable and clean energy sources and responsibly phasing down fossil fuels.”

The fact is that climate change is hitting the human race hard. And the ‘climate vulnerable’ are looking at these leaderships to take decisive actions.

But I am still hopeful as the same statement also spoke about a more focused approach. “The science demands a strong mitigation outcome at COP28 that drives a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and builds on the progress of previous COPs. We call on the G20 to lead the way on the basis of both science and equity, laying the path to a strong and credible outcome that provides developing countries with the basis to undertake a just transition.”

I hope at the end of COP28 we have more concrete actions committed, combined with a stronger political will from across the globe that is purpose-driven than just a thought for benefits or profits.

Tag: UNFCCC