As I write this blog, the extended negotiations, backdoor hustles, and new promises are being unveiled at COP28. So far, this year’s COP28 has remained inconclusive. The Global Stocktaking (COP GST) released at COP28 has a remarkably watered-down tone on fossil fuels.

The run-up to COP28, which was held in Dubai, was filled with enthusiasm, fanfare, cynicism, and criticism. This year may be considered one of the most controversial COPs because the host, the UAE, is a fossil fuel-driven economy. I didn’t buy into the controversy because the UAE has shown the world over the past 20 years how quickly they have adapted and transformed into a global hub. I believe the positive development in the region will enable the COP28 chair to charismatically overrule all criticism and deliver.

Despite my optimism, COP28 drew a lot of flak.

I am not saying there were no constructive conclusions at the COP28. However, the key agenda of the first-ever review of the progress of the COP28 GST, I consider a major disappointment. Owing to the fact that, as against expectation, or should I say, in line with expectation, the document reflects the wishes of the fossil fuel lobbyists rather than the global goal.

The gains:

As per the president of COP 28, Sultan Al-Jaber,  the COP  delivered

•  A global goal to triple renewables and double energy efficiency
•  Declarations on agriculture, food and health
•  More oil and gas companies stepping up for the first time on methane and emissions
•  The language on fossil fuels in the final agreement

The Loss and Damage Fund probably leads the pack of success lists. After years of negotiations, a Loss and Damage Fund was finally established to provide financial assistance to developing countries suffering from the worst impacts of climate change. This historic decision acknowledges the responsibility of developed nations for historical emissions and represents a major breakthrough for climate justice.  And we did see a total of $475 million in contributions.

The second would be the focus on Article 6. Negotiations at COP28 primarily centered on refining the tools of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, aiming to create a robust and transparent global carbon market. This would incentivize emissions reductions and support developing nations in building resilience to climate change. Followed by over 100 countries, including major emitters like China and the United States, joining the Global Methane Pledge, aiming to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030. This is a significant step towards mitigating climate change, as methane is a potent greenhouse gas. Interestingly, we saw progress in some key issues such as climate finance, deforestation, and technology transfer.

Failures

COP meetings revolve around the central theme of unite, act, and deliver. But I am not seeing any strong action in any of these. I would limit the success of this year’s COP28 to just the Loss and Damage Fund. The failure list is much longer—no consciousness reached on Global goal on adoption, Article 6.2 (bilateral trading) 6.4 (carbon markets) and 6.8 (non-market approaches), climate and gender,  carbon pricing, and market-based mechanisms remain unresolved. That means major issues are still at the same stage as before COP28. Sadly, some of the issues were even postponed.

Once COP 28 started, the color and voice of the protest too changed. There were several protests throughout COP28, demanding greater ambition and action. Indigenous communities and youth groups voiced their concerns, highlighting the disproportionate burden they bear from climate change and demanding a just transition to a low-carbon future.

Funds:

Several new funding commitments were announced at COP28. With a $20 billion pledge from the United States to support climate action in developing countries, a new Global Climate Investment Fund was launched with an initial capitalization of $100 billion.

Though these funds represent a significant increase in climate finance, they remain far short of the estimated $4-6 trillion needed annually to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.

While this initial contribution is significant, it falls far short of the estimated needs of vulnerable developing countries. Experts estimate that the fund will need to reach at least $200 million per year to effectively address the growing losses and damages caused by climate change.

So, for me, COP 28 remained a voluminous rhetoric with no significant takeaway. And with Azerbaijan becoming the next host for COP 29, it appears that the fossil fuel-driven economy will continue to wrest its muscle power.

India has a point to cheer; more countries are supporting the fossil fuel phase-down concept. The story continues—the lack of concrete plans for emissions reductions, the continued reliance on fossil fuels, and the insufficient funding for adaptation and resilience.

As a sustainability cheerleader, I am relieved that the COP28 has decided to limit global warming to 1.5 °C with deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050.