The Council on Energy, Environment and Water predicts that developed countries will collectively emit 3.7 giga tonnes of extra carbon emissions in 2030. This exceeds the countries’ nationally determined contributions set under the 2016 Paris Agreement.

This indicates an overshoot of 38% in emissions, of which 83% can be attributed to the United States, the European Union, and Russia. The issue brief, published in collaboration with Wageningen University & Research’s TRANGOV project, indicates that only Norway and Belarus are on track to meet their reduction commitments by 2030.

Data:

• By 2030, developed countries will overshoot carbon emission targets by 38 percent
• Only two developed countries—Norway and Belarus—are on track to achieve their NDCs
• Even with post-2030 reductions, developed countries’ total emissions would still threaten the 1.5°C target
• The combined 2030 NDCs of developed nations indicate a 36% decrease in emissions from 2019 levels. This falls short of the global average of 43% needed to maintain the 1.5°C target

How the developed countries contain carbon emissions?

The issue brief suggests that developed nations, despite accounting for less than a fifth of global emissions, would still emit 40–50% of the global carbon budget needed to meet the 1.5°C warming target. Therefore, these countries should enhance their NDCs and intensify climate action to bridge the anticipated 3.7 GtCO2e implementation gap by 2025.

• Establish precise year-over-year reduction plans rather than relying on future events
• Need to be dependable and maintain their commitment to the Paris Agreement
• The carbon budget available to developing countries is influenced by the mitigation efforts of developed countries.

Dr Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Fellow, CEEW, said, “The numbers are clear – even in this critical decade, developed countries are not projected to meet their 2030 NDC targets. This failure has implications for the limited global carbon budget available now, especially for developing countries like India. It is also crucial for the Global South to have produced this analysis and not just rely on handed-down assessments that focus disproportionately on the emissions of emerging economies. To fulfil their responsibility as historical emitters and financially capable economies, developed countries must do more than meet the global average in emission reduction.”

Sumit Prasad, Program Lead, CEEW, said, “The climate journey of developed countries—historical and proposed—does not show deep enough emission reductions to reflect climate leadership. This means that the burden to mitigate global warming shifts to developing countries, which is problematic in a context where financial support to developing countries to achieve this transition has not been forthcoming, as promised.”