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Double-Digit CAPEX Anticipated for Renewable Energy: CRISIL

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A CRISIL report predicts significant government investment and a robust project pipeline driving clean energy growth in India.

The report predicts double-digit capital expenditure allocation for the renewable energy sector. Analysts expect renewable power capacity to reach 180 gigawatts (GW) by FY26.

Solar energy is expected to remain the dominant player in this growth, says CRISIL.

India’s renewable energy journey has seen steady progress, with a 35% jump to 97 GW in FY22 and 130 GW by the end of FY24. A healthy executable pipeline of 75 GW is expected to contribute 75% of the 50 GW capacity addition, while commercial and industrial (C&I) and rooftop solar installations may contribute the remaining 25%.

The report also highlights a surge in auctioned capacity, rising from 12 GW in FY23 to a significant 35 GW in FY24, reflecting a 2.5-fold increase. The findings from CRISIL’s study are likely to add fuel to the fire of anticipation surrounding the upcoming Union Budget 2024.

With ambitious renewable energy targets and a burgeoning pipeline of projects, the government is expected to unveil policies that will further propel India’s clean energy transition.


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Is wind power regaining sheen?

Renjini Liza Varghese


The wind power sector which dominated the renewable energy basket of India, has lost its leading position to solar power in the past few years.

Even though the wind is infirm, it can still generate energy at night.

However, the capacity addition, which picked up momentum in FY2012 with an addition of 3196.66 MW, slid drastically in the following years. It was only in FY2017 that the country saw the capacity addition crossing the 5 GW mark (5364.78 MW).

The stakeholders have bet over the past ten years on adding 5 GW annually to facilitate the energy transition. However, the sector has been plagued by several problems, including funding issues.

That is not all, the segment has seen a major transition- from WT manufacturers to IPPs, which also affected capacity addition in the last decade. Though the wind power market has evolved both in terms of technology and pricing, it continues to struggle.

However, a new report by the rating agency Crisil shows some green shoots.

As per their observation, the nation’s wind capacity addition is anticipated to increase from 9 GW between fiscal years 2021 and 2024 to nearly 25 GW between fiscal years 2025 and 2028, a 2.5-fold increase. That is more than twice as much as the most recent capacity addition. This also calls for an investment (capex) to the tune of Rs 1.8–2 lakh crore.

Variable data:

According to Crisil’s analysis, India increased its wind capacity by 3.0 GW annually between the fiscal years 2014 and 2018. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy’s data, however, paints a different picture and indicates that, during this time, capacity addition ranged from 1865 MW to 5502 MW.  This is supported by other reference data points such as that of the National Institute of Wind Energy  and the IWTMA.

The pace did slow down to an average of 1.7 GW between fiscals 2018 and 2023 owing to a lack of connected sites with high wind potential and diminished returns for developers from aggressive bidding.

So what will enhance the wind capacity addition?

a) A ramp-up in auctions of wind and hybrid projects (including storage-linked projects)

b) By constructing transmission infrastructure to wind sites

c) Improved financial profiles of wind original equipment manufacturers (OEMs)

d) Viable tariff bids

The policies/ initiatives rolled may strengthen the prospects of the wind sector.

For instance, the government has set a target to auction 50 GW of renewable projects every year, including 10 GW of standalone wind projects for specifically reinvigorating wind capacity additions. This has already led to the auction of around 5 GW standalone wind projects since the start of fiscal 2023, vis-à-vis around 3 GW auctioned in fiscal 2021 and 2022.

Auctions of hybrid and storage-linked projects are also on the rise—up from 4 GW in fiscals 2021 and 2022 to nearly 18 GW in fiscals 2024 and 2023.

The way forward:

Crisil observes that as transmission connectivity and wind OEMs’ financial standing have improved, supply-side constraints have begun to ease.

Additionally, the government is developing transmission infrastructure to improve connectivity to sites with high wind potential and plans to increase connected capacity for wind sites from ~50 GW as of December 20224 to ~75 GW by March 2025 and ~100 GW by December 2027.

That said, these estimates remain sensitive to progress on the construction of transmission infrastructure and prices of steel and cement, which could impact the cost of projects and, thereby, the viability of current tariffs.


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CRISIL ESG Ratings Unit Gets Sebi Nod

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Sebi has approved CRISIL ESG Ratings & Analytics as a Category 1 provider of ESG ratings.

CRISIL, which began its ESG scoring business in 2021, will transfer its over 1,000 companies across 65 sectors to its subsidiary, CRISIL ESG Ratings. ESG scores indicate a company’s sustainability and ethical practices, aiding asset managers and investors in selecting companies that meet their ESG criteria.

Following the development, foreign agencies offering ESG rating services to Indian entities must obtain SEBI certification. CRISIL previously provided ESG ratings as part of its general rating services.

Sebi’s order on July 5, 2023, mandates that individuals cannot act as an ESG rating provider without a certificate from the Board. However, they can continue acting for six months or until their application for a registration certificate is disposed of.

Gurpreet Chhatwal, Managing Director, CRISIL Ratings, said, “The ESG scores, which will henceforth be called ‘ESG ratings’, have already found traction among market participants. These are based on a unique India specific framework that factors in nuances at the sectoral level, while being guided by global best practices. The process includes analysis of more than 500 unique data points across the environmental, social and governance aspects for each company.”

Amish Mehta, Managing Director and CEO, CRISIL Ltd, said, “The approval comes at an opportune time when ESG disclosures have been improving and there is increasing realization in the financial markets of the need for independent ESG ratings.”

It must be noted that Sebi has established two rating entity categories based on financial status and roles to ensure transparent, practical, and accurate methodologies in the Indian environment. Accredited rating agencies must publish their ESG ratings methodology, clearly delineate the proportional weight assigned to environmental, social, and governance factors, and retain a minimum ownership interest of 26% for at least five years.


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Breathe Easier: Indian Steel Industry Makes Strides in Decarbonization

Renjini Liza Varghese


The steel industry’s decarbonization has been the main focus because it is essential to meeting the world’s net-zero emission targets. However, the cost of green steel production, lack of incentives, and regulations have created hurdles. But the good news is that the goal is achievable. While the cost of producing green steel may not be a hurdle for a few, regulations and price incentives are essential to drive the shift in investment and consumption towards green steel production, at large.

Undoubtedly, steel production is a major contributor to global carbon emissions, accounting for about 8% and roughly 30% of the segment emissions, respectively. In addition, the steel sector is also the leading consumer of coal, a key source of the heat and carbon required to convert iron ore into steel.

The good news is that the domestic primary steel producers are set to achieve their goal of reducing carbon emissions. According to a recent report from rating agency Crisil, Indian steel companies had set an ambitious target of reducing carbon emissions below 2 tCO2/tcs by 2030. The industry has already made significant progress. Steel manufacturers’ reported carbon emissions have decreased from over 3 tCO2/tcs in fiscal 2005 to 2.35 tCO2/tcs, which translates to a 65% reduction in targeted emissions.

The report also highlighted the benefits of emission reduction. Reducing emissions broadens fund-raising avenues, improves export competitiveness, and has a positive impact on credit quality. However, Crisil acknowledges the challenges that lie ahead to completely transitioning to low-carbon steel, also known as green steel.

Shifting Towards Low-Carbon Steel Production
Coal-fired steel plants are major contributors to CO2 pollution. To address this challenge, companies are exploring alternative solutions, such as using low-carbon energy sources like hydrogen, coal gasification, or electricity for steel production.

Meanwhile, media reports in China indicate that the nation’s steel industry could reduce carbon emissions by as much as 11% by 2025 if the government sets a more aggressive goal for the use of electric arc furnaces (EAFs).

Cost of Green Steel Production

The cost of green steel production in comparison to traditional methods and the viability of large-scale production are important considerations in this discussion. While the cost premium exists, it is not as high as initially feared, depending on the production location and method. The cost premium for green steel can range from negligible to around $150 per metric ton.

Crisil previously discussed the difficulties that Indian steel producers may encounter as a result of the EU’s CBAM. This mechanism may result in a 17% increase in the cost of India’s steel exports to the EU. When paired with greenflation, the overall effect might reach 40%.

The CBAM Deadline:
As per CBAM regulations, exporters will need to submit quarterly reports on their emissions starting October 1, 2023. From December 31, 2025, they will be required to purchase Emissions Trading System (ETS) certificates to offset their greenhouse gas emissions. Initially, industries will be granted free allowances to ease the transition, but these allowances will progressively disappear by 2034. The ETS tax will then become applicable to the portion of emissions not covered by free allowances.

The Indian steel industry is emerging as a frontrunner in decarbonization. Their significant progress in slashing emissions, exceeding halfway to their 2030 target, is a testament to their commitment to environmental stewardship.

 

 


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What is CRISIL predicting for the e2W market segment?

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The FAME-II scheme subsidy reduction and subsequent price increases in existing models will impact the growth of two-wheeler electric vehicles.

According to marketing rating agency CRISIL, the volume growth of electric two-wheelers (e2Ws) is predicted to slow to 25% this fiscal. Its units nearly tripled to 7.3 lakh last fiscal.

On a positive note, e2W manufacturers are adapting to the new subsidy regime. They are optimizing their product line-up. They are also releasing more affordable, smaller battery variants.

CRISIL said that three factors will accelerate the adoption of e2Ws over the medium term. These are:

• Favorable total cost of ownership (TCO)
• Anticipated initial acquisition cost reductions
• Increased component localization

Naveen Vaidyanathan, Director, CRISIL, said, “Despite the subsidy cut, industry growth continues to be supported by fundamentally favorable economics of scale for e2Ws. The TCO is estimated to be ~20% lower for e2Ws. This is compared with petrol variants under the current subsidy regime; and ~32% lower under the earlier subsidy regime. The average running cost of 25-30 paise per km compared with Rs 2-2.25 per km for a petrol vehicle. This makes a difference over the life of the two-wheeler.”

Pushan Sharma, Director, Research, CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics, said, “Newer models will enhance affordability by lowering the upfront cost by 10-15%. These steps by e2W manufacturers and the expected festive-season spurt would support growth in the second half, albeit on a high base, leading to an overall ~25% growth in e2Ws this fiscal.”


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Sebi expands ESG to six new mutual funds schemes

Sonal Desai


The mutual fund industry in India is all set to embrace more green initiatives.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), the market regulator, has issued a circular introducing a new category of mutual fund schemes for Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing. These schemes fall under a distinct subcategory within the thematic category of equity schemes.

Sebi has taken definitive steps to promote green finance. Additionally, Sebi hopes to reduce the risks of mis-selling and greenwashing in MFs as part of the initiative.

“… it is decided to introduce a separate sub-category for ESG investments under the thematic category of Equity schemes. Any scheme under the ESG category shall be launched with one of the following strategies – a. Exclusion, b. Integration, c. Best-in-class & Positive Screening, d. Impact investing, e. Sustainable objectives, f. Transition or transition related investments,” the regulator said.

The strategies:
Exclusion strategies involve excluding securities based on ESG-related operations, corporate strategies, or industry verticals. Integration involves considering both traditional financial and ESG factors in investment decisions. Best-in-class and positive screening involves investing in businesses outperforming peers on ESG-related performance metrics. Fund managers should assess environmental, social, and governance issues, manage them, and invest in sectors with long-term ESG trends for sustainable objectives. Supporting environmental transition companies generates positive social and environmental impacts.

What is mandatory?
Sebi mandates 80% of ESG schemes’ assets under management to invest in equity and equity-related instruments, and 65% in companies with BRSR disclosures. Investment criteria apply from October 1, 2024, with a one-year grace period for non-compliant schemes.

The circular emphasizes enhanced disclosure requirements, including scheme strategy, ESG scores, voting, and annual fund manager commentary. It also calls for independent assurance and certification by AMCs to ensure regulatory compliance and independent assurance on ESG scheme portfolios.

The disclosures:
Sebi also outlined some disclosure requirements for the ESG schemes. Mutual funds must clearly disclose the following:
1. Name of ESG strategy in the name of the concerned ESG fund/scheme
ii. Security wise BRSR Core scores along with the BRSR scores in their monthly portfolio statements of ESG schemes
iii. The name of the ERPs providing ESG scores for the ESG schemes, along with the ESG scores.

The market:
Rating agency Crisil predicts India’s mutual fund industry assets could reach Rs 50 lakh crore by 2025, up from Rs 30 lakh crore in November 2020. It believes independent research and analytics will be crucial. A CRISIL Research analysis revealed that a significant portion of funds are in companies with good ESG scores, with exposure to ‘Leadership’, ‘Strong’, and ‘Adequate’ categories at Rs 2.29 lakh crore, Rs 5.22 lakh crore, and Rs 6.46 lakh crore, respectively.


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Budgetary support to unlock potential for pumped hydro energy storage Projects

Renjini Liza Varghese


The Ministry of Power (MoP) recently released guidelines that are expected to boost pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) projects in India. These guidelines have the potential to add approximately 5 GW of capacity over the next five fiscal years. With the increasing share of renewable energy, particularly solar power, during non-peak hours, investing in storage infrastructure has become crucial.

The current situation highlights the disparity between renewable energy generation and peak power demand. Solar power, which currently constitutes half of the renewable energy mix (solar + wind), is produced during the daytime, while peak power demand typically occurs in the evenings from 5 PM to 8 PM. As the proportion of solar power in the overall renewable energy mix is expected to rise to around 58% over the next two fiscal years, the absence of storage solutions limits the ability of solar power to meet peak-demand requirements.

Energy storage systems (ESS) offer a solution to this problem by charging during periods of excess electricity generation and discharging into the grid when needed. There are two primary options for ESS: pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) and battery energy storage systems (BESS). The MoP guidelines primarily focus on PHES projects due to their advantages over BESS, including a long project life of approximately 50 years with minimal maintenance costs, low residual waste generation, and the ability to store energy for extended durations without significant discharging.

However, PHES projects face several challenges, which have resulted in minimal capacity addition since March 2017. These challenges include identifying suitable sites, complex implementation processes, long gestation periods, and high capital costs that affect project viability. Additionally, the approval process, including land acquisition and environmental clearances from forest and wildlife authorities, is often lengthy and cumbersome.

Ankit Hakhu, Director at CRISIL Ratings, explains that the MoP guidelines could expedite the environmental clearances for off-river PHES projects by providing a separate window for approval. The guidelines also allow the government to offer land at concessional rates on an annual lease rental basis. Moreover, they facilitate the utilization of exhausted mines for PHES projects and provide a one-year relaxation for projects facing delays due to pending forest and environmental clearances. These measures should help mitigate implementation challenges and increase the number of available sites at attractive costs.

Out of the estimated 5 GW of PHES capacity that may be commissioned over the next five fiscal years, 2.8 GW is already under construction, with the rest expected to come up at potential sites identified by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, amounting to a cumulative total of 29.9 GW.

To improve project viability, the guidelines offer budgetary support, capped at Rs 1.5 crore per MW for projects up to 200 MW and Rs 1 crore per MW for projects above 200 MW, for setting up enabling infrastructure such as road connectivity and transmission lines to the project site. The guidelines also open the possibility for PHES projects to generate additional revenue streams by offering ancillary services such as reactive support and peak hour shaving. These services have the potential to increase cash flow by approximately 5% annually.

Varun Marwaha, Associate Director at CRISIL Ratings, suggests that if these measures are implemented effectively, PHES projects with the capacity to store electricity for over 6 hours could provide power at a levelized tariff of Rs 6-7 per unit. This calculation includes a budgetary benefit of around Rs 0.3 per unit, which depends on the project’s location and associated costs. Although this tariff may be higher compared to the average procurement price for power distribution companies (discoms), it could assist discoms in increasing the share of green energy


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Golden era for wind energy in India?

Renjini Liza Varghese


An interesting news item on renewable energy caught my attention today morning. Wind energy contributed 64.54 billion units in the last three quarters from April-January FY2022-23 to India’s energy basket. It is not surprising that Gujarat and Tamil Nadu lead the pack with 17,062 million units and 15,703 million units respectively. The data was released by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy.

Considering what the wind sector has gone through in the past couple of years, the growth in the wind energy segment is commendable. Overall, only 41% of projects awarded by SECI during 2018-21 were commissioned till December 2022. 23% were cancelled and the balance were delayed due to land acquisition, and evacuation and supply-side constraints.

I remember my stint with a leading wind energy association where we constantly spoke about the need for capacity addition of 3-6 GW per year and moving beyond 10 GW/year before 2020. Those days our efforts did not bear fruits. It doesn’t end here. Credit Rating agency Crisil, in a press release titled: “Wind energy sector set to surge 4-5x on policy tailwinds” reiterated that India added wind energy of 1.6 GW per annum average. Comparatively, the solar energy sector averaged 8.3 GW per annum in the last five fiscals from 2017 to 2022.

But now the climate rather the wind has changed the segment. This time, for the good. The recent development is an upbeat development in the wind energy market segment.

As per CRISIL, moves by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) can crank up India’s annual wind capacity implementation to 6-8 gigawatt (GW) per annum starting fiscal 2026, significantly more than the 1.6 GW annual rate clocked in the past five years.

New Policy 

New policy measures by the MNRE are adding the thrust. One, MNRE has set a goal to award 8 GW of wind tenders per annum. This is significant because wind tendering has been low at just 3.3 GW per annum in the past five fiscals. Secondly, the ministry has replaced the reverse auction process with a single-stage, two-envelope closed bidding. This should curb irrational bidding. We expect tariffs to rise 20-30% over the recent Rs 2.89-2.94 per unit 4 (to provide more than 10% internal rate of return), on account of changes in the bidding process, resource variability at newer sites, etc, CRISIL said in a press release.

It noted that MNRE has mandated that all discovered renewable tariffs for each state will be pooled and offered to discoms at an average pooled tariff by an intermediary such as SECI. That would lower the risk for wind power project developers because SECI fares significantly better than state discoms in terms of payment of dues.

Strict disciplinary actions such as revoking bank guarantees if the project is not delayed by a year or debarment for 5 years if the project is delayed by 18 months will ensure timely completion, CRISIL stated.

“Basis our discussions with developers, considering 8 GW of bidding in fiscal 2024 and 20-24 months to the commission, around 6-8 GW capacity can be installed every year starting FY2026. This factors in policy push by the government. The annual installations could be on the lower side than the tender volume if the historical reasons for the delay that may be beyond the control of developers, persist,” said  Ankit Hakhu, Director, CRISIL Ratings.

Recalling here PM’s recent statement— India’s green energy potential is no less than a  goldmine. Renewable energy contributes more than 40% to the country’s energy basket. And the set target is to achieve 500 GW of renewable energy by 2030.

ACHIEVABLE – no doubt as the ministry is taking proactive steps and the industry is gearing to tap the potential of repowering and offshore wind energy.

 


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