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COP28, Fossil fuels, Energy transition

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COP28: Phasing Out or Phasing Down Fossil Fuels?

Renjini Liza Varghese


The annual event, – Conference of Parties COP28, no doubt, will be a critical crossroads for energy transition.

Starting tomorrow (30 November to 12 December), the signatories will assemble in Dubai to deliberate and conclude on substantial action to mitigate climate change. The Indian Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi, also will be present during the first 2 days. It may be business as usual for those who are offering their first-ever review. The decibel levels may rise when the bossiest polluters (China, US) are asked to commit more to the loss and damage fund.

I believe that the debate on phasing out versus phasing down fossil fuels taking center stage at COP 28 this year. While the decision to completely phase out will be a bold and decisive step towards a cleaner, energy future, phasing down offers a more pragmatic approach, particularly for developing nations like India.

It is a fact that like many other developing countries, India’s energy landscape is currently dominated by fossil fuels, with coal alone accounting for 49% of electricity generation. The country’s ambitious renewable energy targets, aiming for 500 GW of installed capacity by 2030, are commendable. However, the sheer scale of India’s energy demand necessitates a gradual transition, which balances environmental protection and economic growth.

According to me, phasing down fossil fuels, rather than an abrupt phase-out approach, presents a more viable strategy. This approach allows the country to utilize its existing fossil fuel infrastructure while simultaneously investing in cleaner energy sources like renewables and hydrogen. The gradual reduction in fossil fuel reliance ensures a smooth transition without jeopardizing energy security.

The United Nations report, projecting continued fossil fuel production growth until 2030 for coal and 2050 for oil and gas, further supports the phasing-down approach. This projection highlights the need for a realistic transition timeline that aligns with global fossil fuel production trends.

Assessing countries’ climate mitigation goals only after fossil fuel production peaks makes sense. Because, by that time, nations will have a clearer roadmap for their energy transition and will have developed sustainable solutions like hydrogen to meet rising energy demands.

That is why I expect COP28 to delve into the phasing out versus phasing down debate, with discussions on stocktaking, commitments from major emitters like China and the US, and the loss and damage fund. I also see the anti-ESG lobbying taking center stage during this year. However, the real impetus for actionable change is likely to emerge from the phasing out versus phasing down conversations.

Key Takeaways:

Phasing down fossil fuels offers a more pragmatic approach to energy transition for developing countries like India.

India’s energy needs necessitate a gradual transition that balances environmental sustainability with economic growth.

Assessing climate mitigation goals after fossil fuel production peaks provides a more realistic timeline.

COP28 is expected to be a critical turning point in the global energy transition.


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Insufficient Action or Lack of Will to Implement?

Renjini Liza Varghese


In the recent past, we have seen a mixed bag of developments. On the one hand, we saw the rollout of CBAM by the EU, and on the other hand, we saw some of the countries taking stock of their net zero plans.

The CBAM rollout by the EU has invited strong reactions from many countries exporting into Europe, including India and China. Protecting the trade of a country is necessary; it is also equally important to protect our environment. CBAM, according to me, is a beginning, and we should have stricter compliances in place to protect Mother Earth.

We have, in the recent days, seen insufficiency in action by nations and corporates alike. For example, to meet its climate goals, the EU needs to cut its carbon emissions three times faster. This is as per the latest report released by the European Commission on the State of the Energy Union. New estimates from the European Environment Agency suggest current policies in EU member states will cut emissions in 2030 by just 43%. At the same time, if include the planned policies which are yet to be implemented, the number can rise to 47 percent, which is way less than the target of 55 percent.

It is now believed that Canada’s emission reduction plans may be insufficient to meet its  2030 targets. By 2030, Canada has aimed to cut emissions by 40-45% to its 2005 levels. The latest report by the country’s auditor general states that the measures taken by the country are insufficient or not prioritized. That means the country will miss its commitment to the Paris Agreement on climate change.

While on the corporate side, half of the world’s 2,000 biggest listed companies have set a target to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

In another development, a news report by the agency Reuters says only a fraction of these companies meet the United Nations guidelines for what constitutes a quality pledge. This is based on a report published by Net Zero Tracker.

“Net Zero Tracker, an independent data consortium including Oxford University, said corporate targets from Forbes2000 index companies had jumped 40% to 1,003 in October 2023, from 702 in June 2022, covering two-thirds of revenues, some $27 trillion. However, just 4% of the companies meet the criteria laid down by the UN’s Race to Zero campaign, for example, by covering all emissions, starting to cut them immediately, and including an annual progress update on interim and longer-term targets.”

Some positive movements are also seen. China, the world’s biggest polluter, had announced to set up green pilot programs in 100 cities as it chases the 2030 carbon-peaking, net-zero targets.

The 35 pilot programs and relevant policy mechanisms are expected to crystalize in 2025 and progress significantly by 2030.

Even Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy,  has slashed carbon emissions targets for its power sector by 2030 and pledged to boost its share of renewable energy. It released a roadmap as it seeks to wean itself off coal.

The country has set a target to achieve net-zero power sector emissions by 2050 in return for financing for the $20 billion Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) plan. Under the plan, Jakarta has pledged to slash its power sector carbon emissions to a peak of 250 million metric tonnes by 2030, down from a previous cap of 290 million. It also plans to boost its renewable energy generation share to 44 percent by 2030, up from an initial target of 34 percent, the planning document said.

In one word, announcing targets and emission reduction projects must be implemented with stricter vigor. That is the only way to save Mother Earth from man-made damages and save us from further catastrophes.


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